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Follow-up of 9th to 11th Graders

Posted by LMI Win-Win Network - On October 17, 2013 (EST)

Longitudinal Study of 9th to 11th Graders

The U.S. National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) has issued the first results from its follow-up of how 2009's 9th graders fared 2.5 years later, when most of the students were in the Spring term of 11th grade. The results include important findings on dropping out, progress by socioeconomic background, math scores, and students’ preparation and expectations for college and work.

See High School Longitudinal Study of 2009: First Follow-up (2012).

Dropping Out

Only 2.7 percent of those beginning 9th grade in 2009 had dropped out by close to the end of 11th grade; another 1.7 percent were still in school, but had not yet reached the 11th grade because they’d repeated a grade. Interestingly, the combined proportion of those who had either been promoted to 12th grade (3.4 percent) or had already graduated (1.1 percent) almost exactly matched those who had dropped out or failed a grade (4.5 vs. 4.4 percent, respectively). [p. 7]

Progress by Socioeconomic Background

The study repeatedly underscored the importance of socioeconomic background in how well students progressed. NCES defined socioeconomic status using an index based on parental education and occupation, and family income. Teens were placed in one of five categories (quintiles) from the lowest to the highest scores. [p. A-9] For example, 5 percent those with the most disadvantaged socioeconomic background had dropped out by 2012, vs. only about half a percent of those with the most advantaged backgrounds. Similarly, 6.3 percent of those whose parents hadn’t finished high school had dropped out by 2012, vs. less than 1 percent of those with at least one parent who possessed a Master’s degree or more. [p. 7]

Nearly a third (31 percent) of those whose parents hadn’t finished high school expected to attain no more than a high school education, vs. 6 percent of those with at least one parent who possessed a Master’s degree or more. Conversely, 37 percent of those whose parents hadn’t finished high school expected to obtain a Bachelor’s degree or higher, vs. 79 percent of those with at least one parent who possessed a Master’s degree or more. [p. 5]

Tested Math Achievement

Achievement on a math assessment was an even better predictor of progress by 2012. [pp. 6-7, 13-14] The study included state data on math performance for public school students in 10 populous states (California, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington). There was surprisingly little variation in scores by state: scores (on a scale of 0-118) varied only from 37 to 40 in 2009, and from 61 to 66 in 2012. At the national level, average math achievement rose in these 2.5 years by a score of 25 points, from 38 to 64. [p. 15]

Preparation for Future Schooling and Work

Although 80 percent of these teens had done some research about college, only 63 percent had yet spoken with a high school counselor about their post-scholastic options. Nearly half (48 percent) had attended a career day or job fair. One third (34 percent) had volunteered in a job related to their career goals, and 17 percent had enlisted in a career-preferred internship or apprenticeship. [ p. 12]

Survey Background and Other Resources

NCES re-surveyed these individuals in 2013, and expects to do so again in 2016 (three years after graduation), with additional follow-ups planned until respondents reach at least age 30. The current report reflects only a small fraction of the information gathered. In addition to survey questions, students were given a mathematics assessment in algebraic reasoning and problem-solving in both 2009 and 2012. [p. 2]

NCES' High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 is the latest in a long history of U.S. Education Dept. surveys tracking the progress of a cohort of junior high or high school students.  For research and data on the experiences of previous cohorts (including  U.S. Labor Dept. surveys of teens), see Links to Longitudinal Surveys.




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Modified On : October 18, 2013
Type : Thread
Viewed : 1040
In Relation : Educational Attainment, Achievement, Credentials, and Skills Data


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